This Tweet Got Ignored in January — Now It’s the Most Accurate Market Call of 2025 On January 18, 2025, macro analyst Carl Moon Runefelt issued a stark warning on Twitter about an impending financial meltdown. At the time, his prediction raised eyebrows, with little recognition or traction from the financial media. Fast forward three months, and the S&P 500 is down nearly 20%, emergency Federal Reserve rate cuts are in play, and suddenly, Runefelt’s foresight looks rather prescient. “Debts are rising alongside greed and euphoria in the stock market. The signs of a financial crisis are growing,” Runefelt tweeted, […]

Market Volatility: Understanding the Current Landscape and Trump’s Reaction Function As we navigate through the murky waters of today’s financial markets, one thing is crystal clear: volatility is back and making headlines. The VIX volatility index, which measures market expectations of near-term volatility, has managed to close above 30 for an exasperating consecutive 10 sessions. This unsettling trend has not been seen since the last throes of the bear market in October 2022. Amid this climate of uncertainty, Michael Kantrowitz, the chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, has offered an intriguing theory on how President Trump might respond to these […]

Can the Stock Market Find Solace in Good Friday? A Conservative Analysis The day before Good Friday has often been a beacon of hope for stock market investors. Historically, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite have seen gains in the trading day leading up to this Christian holiday. But in the chaotic financial landscape of 2025, where President Donald Trump’s tariff plans loom large over market sentiment, can we still expect a return on this seasonal trend? A Holiday Tradition of Gains Market closures for Good Friday, a holiday observed on the Christian calendar, bring about […]