Japan’s Stock Market Surge: Could the Momentum Continue?


The Japanese stock market’s impressive performance, with the Nikkei 225 breaking through its historic 1989 peak, has captivated investors. Strong company fundamentals, enhanced corporate governance, and increased foreign investor interest have fueled this remarkable rally. Now, the question is: Does this upward trajectory have room to run, or are we nearing the peak? Several factors suggest that the Japan stock run could indeed have staying power.

Corporate Transformation: A Long-Term Catalyst

Japan’s corporate sector is undergoing significant change with a keen focus on enhancing capital efficiency. Companies are restructuring operations, divesting non-core assets, and seeking ways to better utilize their capital. Currently, the average return on equity (ROE) for companies within the TOPIX 500 index remains significantly lower than benchmarks in Europe and the US. One of our analysts highlights that pressure from Japanese regulators and foreign hedge funds for higher ROE could unlock tremendous value and propel earnings growth. This process holds vast long-term potential, suggesting a sustained rally could take shape.

Retail Investor Surge and Changing Inflation Dynamics

The growing appetite for domestic stocks among Japanese retail investors is another encouraging sign. If Japan can decisively move beyond its deflationary era, individuals may be increasingly drawn to stocks as a hedge against inflation. Cash holdings lose their luster when prices rise. Furthermore, an updated tax-advantaged investing scheme (NISA) is attracting a wave of first-time retail investors to the market. This trend is particularly noteworthy considering that Japanese households traditionally allocate a large portion of their wealth to cash, offering significant potential for stock inflows as this demographic becomes more active.

Breaking Free from Deflation: A New Era for Japan’s Economy

The decades-long reign of deflation may finally be coming to an end in Japan. Consumer prices reached a 40-year high in 2023, and a historic wage increase – the largest since 1991 – signals renewed economic momentum. In the past, deflation acted as a substantial drag on consumer spending and corporate profits. One of our analysts notes that the return of inflation could revitalize consumer spending, providing a long-awaited tailwind for businesses and overall economic growth.

Opportunities for Investors

If you’ve been hesitant about investing in Japan, it’s not too late to consider an entry point. Several investment options provide exposure to the Japanese market, including ETFs like the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), actively managed funds like JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan Fund (BBJP), and currency-hedged options like the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) for those concerned about the potential weakening of the yen against the dollar.

The Bottom Line

The Japanese stock market’s recent surge is fueled by a confluence of fundamental changes, potentially shifting the nation’s macroeconomic landscape. As corporate restructuring continues, retail investors become more engaged, and inflationary forces stimulate the economy, there’s compelling evidence to suggest this bull run could extend well into the future.