ULTA Salon stock target raised to $647 on robust beauty demand
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Tuesday, Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating on ULTA Salon (NASDAQ: ULTA) and increased the stock price target to $647 from $620. The firm anticipates strong consumer demand for beauty products to continue following a record holiday spending season.
ULTA Salon, known for its wide range of beauty offerings from mass to prestige and even luxury products, is regarded as a comprehensive destination for beauty shoppers.
The retailer is set to announce its fourth-quarter results on March 14, 2024, after market close. Canaccord Genuity predicts a 9.5% year-over-year increase in sales, slightly above the consensus of 9.3%, with comparable store sales expected to rise by 2.5%, compared to the Street’s forecast of 2.2%. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimate is aligned with the Street’s projection at $7.52.
Data from Bloomberg’s SpendTrend suggests that ULTA could experience just over 3% in comparable store sales. Moreover, according to Circana data, major beauty categories have seen healthy growth during the 13 weeks ending January 28, 2024, which aligns with ULTA’s fourth-quarter reporting period.
The skincare category grew by nearly 11%, fragrance by approximately 9%, and hair products by over 4%, while cosmetics increased by around 1%.
With ULTA’s roughly equal exposure to mass and prestige beauty brands, the data implies that mass beauty comparable sales could be up by around 5%. However, prestige beauty is believed to have exceeded this growth, with Circana reporting a significant uptick in the fourth quarter ending in December.
Investors and analysts will be looking for details on same-store sales drivers, the promotional environment, the balance between mass and prestige segments, gross margin performance, strategies to combat shrinkage, and initial expectations for fiscal year 2024 during ULTA’s earnings call.
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