Goldman Sachs raises Dollar General stock target to $169, maintains Buy

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On Friday, Goldman Sachs adjusted its outlook on Dollar General (NYSE:), increasing the stock’s price target to $169 from the previous $147. This adjustment comes despite the retailer’s shares closing down 5.1% in contrast to the S&P’s marginal 0.2% dip after Dollar General reported a fourth-quarter earnings beat accompanied by fiscal year 2024 guidance that aligned with expectations.

The investment firm has reiterated its Buy rating on the discount retailer’s shares, expressing confidence despite investor concerns regarding the company’s guidance. Investors are wary that the guidance might not be sufficiently conservative, especially considering management’s remarks about the possibility of promotional activities returning to pre-pandemic levels and the reliance on an anticipated improvement in shrink (loss of inventory due to theft, error, or fraud) in the second half of the year.

The analyst from Goldman Sachs noted that the negative stock reaction might be an overreaction, as their own estimates are only decreasing by approximately 1%. They highlighted that there are factors which support the company’s outlook, such as an improving consumer environment and the positive effects of Dollar General’s internal efforts, which are beginning to show in better sales momentum.

Additionally, the analyst pointed out that Dollar General’s situation is bolstered by the fact that no significant additional investments are deemed necessary at this time. Moreover, the company’s inventory levels are trending positively, which is another reason for the firm’s continued recommendation to buy.

Goldman Sachs’ updated 12-month price target of $169 for Dollar General reflects the firm’s positive stance on the company’s prospects, underlining their belief in the retailer’s potential for growth and value creation for shareholders.

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